BEAT THE COUCH · THE ARCHIVE · THE 2022 BEAR

Could You Have Timed the 2022 Bear Market?

THE WINDOW: JAN 3, 2022 TO DEC 8, 2023 · 504 TRADING DAYS

January 3, 2022 was the top. The couch bought it, fell 24%, and two years later was back to $9,964. Only 22.0% of 490 players beat it.

THE COUCH'S $10,000, DAY BY DAY, REAL DAILY DATA

What the couch did

ENDED WITH$9,964 (-0.4%)

WORST DRAWDOWN-24% by Oct 12, 2022

WORST SINGLE DAY-4.6% May 18, 2022

BEST SINGLE DAY+5.7% Nov 10, 2022

CASH INSTEAD (T-BILLS)+7.2%

What happened

January 3, 2022. A record high, the first trading day of the year. The couch buys it.

Then inflation hits a forty-year high, the Fed raises rates faster than at any time since the early 1980s, and the market falls 24% by Oct 12, 2022. Bonds fall too, which is not supposed to happen. Every forecast for 2023 says recession.

The recession does not come. The market climbs back, and the couch ends its two years with $9,964, -0.4%: a full bear market, and it ends roughly where it started. Cash earned +7.2%.

What the players did

GAMES FROM THIS YEAR490

BEAT THE COUCH22.0%

CERTIFIED SKILL8.6%

MEDIAN TRADES4

MEDIAN TIME IN MARKET66%

Player figures cover every game whose window started in 2022, not only the exact hand above, and come from the run export of October 31, 2026. A win counts as SKILL only if it beats 90% of 1,000 monkeys replaying the same window with the same trade count and the same time in the market. Across the thirty windows in this archive players beat the couch 39.2% of the time, because these are the famous years. Across the whole ledger the couch wins 62% of 120,800 games.

The read

22.0% of 490 players beat the couch, even though the window starts at the exact top and contains a real bear market. The median player finished -7.6% against it. Getting out in 2022 was not hard. Getting back in during 2023, while every forecast said the worst was still ahead, was where the money went.

Play this exact windowfree, no signup, about two minutes. Same two years, same data, no hindsight.

Frequently asked

How much did the stock market fall in 2022?

From the January 3, 2022 top the couch fell 24% at the worst, by Oct 12, 2022. Two years after buying the top it held $9,964 of $10,000.

Was 2022 a good time to time the market?

Not in the game. In windows starting in 2022 only 22.0% of players beat a couch that bought the top and held.

Method: real S&P 500 daily total returns, dividends included, calibrated to Damodaran's annual series; cash earns 3-month T-bills. The same data the game deals. See the evidence page for sources, and the full ledger for the whole ledger.

← 2021, the maniaAll thirty windows

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Not financial advice. The couch is not licensed for anything.