BEAT THE COUCH · THE ARCHIVE · THE MANIA

Could You Have Beaten the 2021 Mania?

THE WINDOW: JAN 4, 2021 TO DEC 12, 2022 · 504 TRADING DAYS

GameStop, crypto, SPACs and zero rates, then the 2022 bear market. From January 2021 the couch ended with $10,909. 56.8% of 440 players beat it.

THE COUCH'S $10,000, DAY BY DAY, REAL DAILY DATA

$10,000 START $10,909 Jan 4, 2021 Dec 12, 2022

What the couch did

ENDED WITH$10,909 (+9.1%)
WORST DRAWDOWN-24% by Oct 12, 2022
WORST SINGLE DAY-4.6% May 18, 2022
BEST SINGLE DAY+5.7% Nov 10, 2022
CASH INSTEAD (T-BILLS)+2.0%

What happened

January 2021. Rates are at zero, stimulus checks are arriving, and a video game retailer goes up more than tenfold in two weeks because a forum decided it should. Crypto, SPACs and options trading are everywhere. The market makes record after record through the whole year.

Then January 2022 starts the bear. Inflation, the fastest rate hikes in forty years, and a 24% drawdown by Oct 12, 2022. The couch rode the mania up and the bear down, and finished with $10,909, +9.1%.

The whole window is one story: the party, and the bill.

What the players did

GAMES FROM THIS YEAR440
BEAT THE COUCH56.8%
CERTIFIED SKILL7.7%
MEDIAN TRADES5
MEDIAN TIME IN MARKET75%

Player figures cover every game whose window started in 2021, not only the exact hand above, and come from the run export of October 31, 2026. A win counts as SKILL only if it beats 90% of 1,000 monkeys replaying the same window with the same trade count and the same time in the market. Across the thirty windows in this archive players beat the couch 39.2% of the time, because these are the famous years. Across the whole ledger the couch wins 62% of 120,800 games.

The read

56.8% of 440 players beat the couch, better than a coin. A big run-up followed by a real bear market inside the same two years is the shape that gives timers their best chance, and they took some of it. Only 7.7% passed the monkey audit, so most of those wins were being out at the right time by accident.

Play this exact windowfree, no signup, about two minutes. Same two years, same data, no hindsight.

Frequently asked

How did the stock market do in 2021 and 2022?

Up strongly in 2021, down hard in 2022. A couch that bought on Jan 4, 2021 and held two years ended with $10,909 (+9.1%) after a 24% drawdown.

Did market timers beat the market in the 2021 mania?

Some did. In windows starting in 2021, 56.8% of players beat buy-and-hold, and 7.7% passed the skill audit.

Method: real S&P 500 daily total returns, dividends included, calibrated to Damodaran's annual series; cash earns 3-month T-bills. The same data the game deals. See the evidence page for sources, and the full ledger for the whole ledger.

← 2020, COVIDAll thirty windows2022, the bear →

BEAT THE COUCH · the game · the archive · the daily hands · the evidence · the data · Privacy · Terms

Not financial advice. The couch is not licensed for anything.