BEAT THE COUCH · THE ARCHIVE · THE LIFTOFF

Could You Have Caught the Start of the 1982 Bull Market?

THE WINDOW: SEP 1, 1981 TO AUG 26, 1983 · 504 TRADING DAYS

The bottom came on August 12, 1982. A couch that bought in September 1981 sat through it and ended with $14,508. Only 26.8% of 1,577 players beat it.

THE COUCH'S $10,000, DAY BY DAY, REAL DAILY DATA

What the couch did

ENDED WITH$14,508 (+45.1%)

WORST DRAWDOWN-16% by Aug 12, 1982

WORST SINGLE DAY-4.0% Oct 25, 1982

BEST SINGLE DAY+4.8% Aug 17, 1982

CASH INSTEAD (T-BILLS)+22.8%

What happened

September 1981. Rates are still brutal, the recession is deepening, and the market keeps grinding lower. The couch buys and starts losing: down 16% at the worst, on Aug 12, 1982.

Then, with no warning, it ends. August 12, 1982 is the bottom. A few days later a single Wall Street economist says rates will fall and the market has one of its best days in years. That rally turned out to be the start of an eighteen-year bull market.

The couch is in the whole time and finishes with $14,508, +45.1%. Cash paid +22.8%, a fortune by normal standards, and it still lost.

What the players did

GAMES FROM THIS YEAR1,577

BEAT THE COUCH26.8%

CERTIFIED SKILL7.4%

MEDIAN TRADES4

MEDIAN TIME IN MARKET68%

Player figures cover every game whose window started in 1981, not only the exact hand above, and come from the run export of October 31, 2026. A win counts as SKILL only if it beats 90% of 1,000 monkeys replaying the same window with the same trade count and the same time in the market. Across the thirty windows in this archive players beat the couch 39.2% of the time, because these are the famous years. Across the whole ledger the couch wins 62% of 120,800 games.

The read

26.8% of 1,577 players beat the couch. The median player finished -6.0% behind it. The first year of this window rewards caution, so players learn to be cautious, and then the market leaves without them. Most of the gain in this hand happens in a few weeks most people spent waiting for confirmation.

Play this exact windowfree, no signup, about two minutes. Same two years, same data, no hindsight.

Frequently asked

When did the 1982 bull market start?

On August 12, 1982. A couch that had bought in September 1981 and held through the bottom ended its two-year window with $14,508 of $10,000.

Did market timers catch the 1982 rally?

Mostly not. In windows starting in 1981, only 26.8% of players beat a couch that simply held.

Method: real S&P 500 daily total returns, dividends included, calibrated to Damodaran's annual series; cash earns 3-month T-bills. The same data the game deals. See the evidence page for sources, and the full ledger for the whole ledger.

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Not financial advice. The couch is not licensed for anything.